CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sun 13 Nov 06:00 - Mon 14 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 12 Nov 18:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Main feature this period will be developing cut-off cyclone over the Iberian Peninsula ... which will be accompanied by falling pressures over the W Mediterranean and Iberia. Farther N ... strong ... weakly meandering zonal frontal zone is expected to stretch from the Norwegian Sea across Scandinavia and the Baltic States into N Russia ... maintaining extensive SFC low-pressure complex over the N Atlantic and N Europe.

DISCUSSION

...W Mediterranean Sea...
MLCAPE over the W Mediterranean should be on the order of a few hundred J/kg ... though locally up to a thousand joules may be realized. CINH should be minimal and LCL heights quite low. This coupled with increasing low-level shear should be supportive of a couple of weak/brief tornadoes with any sustained SFC-based updraft. However ... convection over the NW Mediterranean ... forming in LL WAA regime ... may tend to be elevated ... with reduced effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Given increasing deep shear in response to the developing Iberian cut-off low ... multicellular storms should again be possible ... with chances of isolated imbedded mesocyclones. Aside from the tornado threat ... expect a few/brief marginally severe wind/hail events. A SLGT does not appear to be warranted ATTM given uncertainty on whether or not storms will be elevated.

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